This Week in Real Estate: July 31, 2017


While the managing director of the S&P Dow Jones Indices, as well as other economists, contend housing is not repeating a bubble that preceded the Great Recession, ATTOM Data Solutions released This Week in Real Estate that homeowners who sold during the second quarter realized the highest average price gain in ten years. Below are a few highlights from the fourth full week of July that influence our business:

* Case-Shiller: Housing is Not Repeating the Bubble Period. “Home prices continue to climb and outpace both inflation and wages,” said David Blitzer, S&P Dow Jones Indices managing director and chairman of the index committee. “Housing is not repeating the bubble period of 2000 to 2006: price increases vary across the country unlike the earlier period when rising prices were almost universal; the number of homes sold annually is 20% less today than in the earlier period and the months’ supply is declining, not surging.” The small supply of homes for sale is one cause of rising prices. New home construction, higher than during the recession but still low, is another factor in rising prices. “For the last 19 months, either Seattle or Portland was the city with the fastest rising home prices based on 12-month gains,” Blitzer said. “Since the national index bottomed in February 2012, San Francisco has the largest gain. Using Census Bureau data for 2011 to 2015, it is possible to compare these three cities to national averages.” “The proportion of owner-occupied homes is lower than the national average in all three cities with San Francisco being the lowest at 36%, Seattle at 46%, and Portland at 52%,” he said. “Nationally, the figure is 64%. The key factor for the rise in home prices is population growth from 2010 to 2016: the national increase is 4.7%, but for these cities, it is 8.2% in San Francisco, 9.6% in Portland and 15.7% in Seattle. A larger population combined with more people working leads to higher home prices.”
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* U.S. Home Sellers Realized Average Price Gain of $51,000 in Second Quarter of 2017, Highest in 10 Years. Homeowners who sold in the second quarter realized an average price gain of $51,000 since purchase – the highest average price gain for home sellers since Q2 2007, when it was $57,000. The average home seller price gain of $51,000 in Q2 2017 represented an average return of 26 percent on the previous purchase price of the home, the highest average home seller return since Q3 2007, when it was 27 percent. The report also show that homeowners who sold in the second quarter had owned an average of 8.05 years, up from 7.85 years in the previous quarter and up from 7.59 years inn Q2 2016 to the longest average homeownership tenure as far back as data is available, Q1 2000.
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* Consumers Grow More Confident in Future of Economy. Consumers’ assessment of their current conditions remained at a 16-year high even as their confidence in the future edged higher, according to the Consumer Confidence Survey conducted by The Conference Board by Nielsen. The Consumer Confidence Index increased to 121.1 in July up from 117.3 in June. The Present Situation Index increased from 143.9 last month to 147.8 in July and the Expectations Index increased to 103.3, up from 99.6 last month. “Overall, consumers foresee the current economic expansion continuing well into the second half of this year,” said Lynn Franco, The Conference Board Director of Economic Indicators.
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Have a productive week!


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